Traffic in Alameda

About This Model

This model for projecting transit and car usage for Alameda Point related to the number of homes built has been brought together by Action Alameda based on explanations, inputs and reviews our members have received from the regional transit commission and AC transit. This is how we understand the regional agencies project transit use for Alameda. (It requires Shockwave Flash to operate.)

Assumptions

Assumes that 60% of Alameda cars go Off-Island.
Assumes that 50% of Off-Island trips are bound for San Francisco.
Assumes that 25% of Off-Island trips are bound for Oakland.
Assumes that 25% of Off-Island trips are bound for the South-Bay or other areas that are not served well enough by transit to get people out of their cars. (Remember, the BART system is primarily a funnel pouring people into San Francisco.)

Examples

Try a Measure A Compliant scenario with 2000 homes, 2 cars per home and 17% transit usage. (Alameda's transit use is 15% to 20% today.)
Then try a Measure A Exempt scenario with 6000 homes, 1.5 cars per home, and 30% transit usage. (It is optimistic to roughly double transit usage and reduce car ownership.)

Compare these two scenarios to see that in the 6,000 Home Measure A Exempt Scenario, roughly twice as many off-island car trips (4,185) are generated versus the 2000 Home Measure A Compliant Scenario (2,094 off-island car trips.)

Those off-island car trips will have to go through the Webster/Posey Tubes or other bridge access points.

Another Model

Don't like that model? Try this one.

The City of Alameda's 2001-2006 Housing Element estimated that 71% of Alameda's workforce leave the island to go to work each day. That factor, plus the number of homes built at Alameda Point, are the biggest influencers in the number of net auto-trips generated by Alameda Point, destined for the tube. We should build fewer homes at Alameda Point and try to create more higher-paying professional jobs there to give more opportunities for people to live and work on the island. (The estimate of an average of 2.38 people per home comes from the U.S. Census data.)